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Elementary Statistics of Tail Events by William Nordhaus

This is really good. Highly recommended. A look in: "A tail event is an outcome which, from the perspective of the frequency of historical events or perhaps only from intuition, should happen only once in a thousand or million or centillion years. Tail events are more than statistical curiosities. In some cases, they may be so important that they dominate the way we think about our options and our strategies"

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